Case Studies

  • Created an integrated financial model of a reinsurance start up in the property and casualty area, with several possible business lines, and eliminating the need for explicit loss triangles by using a user-defined function.
  • Developed a valuation methodology and model for pricing innovative mine-development financing projects.
  • Built a project finance model for the debt refinancing of an oil company.
  • Built a financing model to link strategy into financing needs, and looked at scenarios for equity dilution and share price development.
  • Created a flexible planning model in which project dates and level of detail, as well as more traditional sensitivities, could be changed.
  • Helped a UK bank improve its credit models for emerging market lending.
  • Built a financial model of the underlying cost and revenue structure of a business in order to analyse of the effect of exchange rate movements on the business plan.
  • Speeded up a complex optimisation problem in a food manufacturer’s supply-chain.
  • Worked with a client to review the results of a risk model that was producing unexpected results. I demonstrated reasons why their existing approach would lead to a narrow apparent range of uncertainties, and then showed how the model could be rebuilt to correct these deficiencies.
  • Devised a framework and structure that allowed for a client’s wide range of projects to be dealt with in a common way. Working with their team, I conducted a pilot project to demonstrate the applicability and benefits of the approach, and implemented this as a dynamic and flexible database. After a hand-over phase, the client implemented the approach in a full scale project.
  • Designed a cost-estimation model for the decommissioning of a North Sea oil platform, involving workshops with key client staff to estimate ranges and dependencies, so that base plans and contingencies could be calculated.
  • Advised on the design and implementation of a cost-estimation model for a major construction project of a chemical facility in the Gulf region.
  • Constructed a risk-register for a client having a number of major engineering projects, using workshops to identify and quantity risks and to communicate the results from a quantitative model of risk exposure.
  • Developed a risk model for the performance of contingency calculations, and allocations of project contingencies to sub-projects.
  • Conducted a workshop to devise a client-specific framework for the cost modelling and risk register for the construction of a gas pipeline.
  • Built a simulation model for calculation of contingencies in a road construction project, and extended it to cover issues such as optimisation of road surface thickness.
  • Showed a client how Excel add-ins could be used to create simple yet powerful models in the areas of oil reserves uncertainty estimation, modelling operational and capital expenditures, and building integrated business cases from exploration through to exploitation, and using a methodology that was readily understood by the full set of staff involved, whether geologists, engineers, or economists.
  • Built an integrated business plan and financial statement model that linked key areas of strategy formulation with financial measures. A key deliverable is a model which is as simple as possible and transparent, yet flexible to allow scenarios to be run, whilst also capturing the complexity of the business where appropriate.
  • Showed a client how to automate the processing and analysis of data in an Excel environment so that a large database could be used as an input into a model in an automated and flexible way, and which avoided the very significant manual pre-processing work that the client had been doing up to that point.
  • Devised a pricing mechanism for a spin-off unit of a business that reflected general market price levels, but – based on activity-based costing – allowed for a sophisticated pricing mechanism that applied to the simplest or the most complex projects, whilst remaining cost competitive and internally transparent in each case.
  • Helped a major food manufacturer speed up a complex non-linear optimisation problem in its supply-chain using heuristic techniques to improve the performance of their selected algorithm.
  • Helped a client speed up an optimisation problem by appropriate reformulation of the model, the objective function and the constraints.
  • Formulated and structured an Excel-based model of uncertain arrival and service times for a telecommunications company to help derive new marketing offering and to improve customer service.
  • Conducted a portfolio optimisation project for a family office with a range of private equity and other investments. I reviewed the total return profile of a wide range of assets in various currencies and built an optimisation framework and quantitative model to assist their decisions in portfolio allocations.
  • Built a model for a manufacturing company that allowed it to see the effect of exchange rate movements on all key line items of an integrated financial statement and business plan.
  • Built a valuation model of a business unit for which an offer to purchase had been received.
  • Built an integrated business forecast and valuation model for a potential acquisition, and conducted a stand-alone, as well as a synergy-included, valuation.
  • Built a transparent and simplified model with a forecast of a complex 30-year public-private vehicle, so that this vehicle could be sold to potential acquirers in a smoother way, instilling potential buyers with a more rapid sense of confidence in the vehicle’s likely future financial performance.
  • For a private equity firm considering a further injection of capital in a loss-making business, I audited the model put together by the management team. I suggested and implemented improvements, so that more transparency was achieved with the investors about the likely future developments, risks and opportunities.
  • For a private equity firm considering whether to buy an insurance entity, I constructed a financial model of the business. This involved integrating actuarial data in the overall plan, as Ill as incorporating operational issues, such as sales force effectiveness. I analysed funding and refinancing requirements and cash generation profiles under different scenarios, and established the risks associated with different financial structures for the deal.
  • For a private equity firm, I built a template model to integrate and consolidate key business ratios of a company’s subsidiaries, including a capability to analyse the effect of earnings uncertainty of individual business units on the aggregate picture.
  • For a fund manager considering a major investment opportunity in the telecommunications industry, I built a forecasting and valuation model which allowed for the testing of different possible market and operational scenarios.
  • For several clients, I conducted the modelling of revenue forecasting, bearing in mind the uncertain nature of the market and competitive development, customer behaviour, and the internal success of product development projects. These models supported general forecasting, business planning and communication, as well as target setting and resource optimisation.
  • For the modelling team of a corporate finance boutique, I reviewed their modelling knowledge and likely applications, and devised a tailored program of learning in advanced areas of Excel modelling for them to hone their skills.
  • Reviewed a client’s model of a drug development project and suggested improvements to it, as well as clarifying issues relating to model calibration and probability assessment.
  • Built a cost model for the phased development of a new drug, covering the costs of each phase, the ramp-up, overlap and ramping down of each phase, and which also reflected the effect of the success or not of each phase, as well as other project uncertainties.
  • Designed and proto-typed a simulation model to assess the possible spread and damage due to fire in a major building complex. The subsequent more detailed implementation work was taken over by the client to complete.
  • Built sample risk models of credit modelling and portfolio optimisation to show how Excel add-ins could be used to support credit decisions of a major bank, as well as a building society.
  • Supported clients in the design of internal training courses in the area of decision-making under uncertainty and probabilistic modelling.
  • For a semi-conductor manufacturer, I ran training courses and built models for the analysis of project schedule risk, as well as for real options analysis.
  • For a large manufacturer of food and beverages that was considering constructing a new plant in Central Europe, I conducted a detailed risk assessment, and built a quantitative model to allow them to evaluate this decision. The model included general financial quantities, as well as the risks of project execution and start-up and the potential effect of deviations from the forecasted exchange rates and future labour rates.
  • Showed a number of clients how simulation techniques can be used to model uncertainty and variability in food safety applications and veterinary contexts.
  • Advised a new entrant telecommunications company on building capabilities to manage customer relationships, including analysing world-wide best practices and creating databases and customer scoring algorithms.
  • Analysed the business economics of a potential new entrant in the residential telecommunications market. A financial model was constructed based off data about market segmentation, take-up rates, and the set-up and ongoing operational costs of the business, and was used to evaluate the opportunities and risks faced by the client.
  • Reviewed the expansion plans for expansion within continental Europe for a major tissue-paper producer, including identification and quantification of the critical risks involved in the expansion. The analysis was used to further define the plans, and to develop additional measures for improvement in the areas of manufacturing, distribution and marketing.
  • Performed a business review of the German operations of a major supplier of specialist software, linking this review to a financial model. The market analysis indicated the likely rapid growth of the number of smaller, network-based applications, and the financial model of the operation indicated that the client’s sales and distribution structure would not be able to profitability serve this rapidly growing segment; indeed the business would likely decline over the coming years. As a result, options Ire developed both to improve customer service and to restructure the business at the European level, and to form strategic partnerships.
  • Used activity-based-costing to establish the profitability of the product range of a major international food manufacturer. In conjunction with an analysis of the client’s market position and competitors’ operations, strategic options aimed at improving long-term profitability Ire developed. The product range was refocused and re-priced, and additional investments Ire made in the areas of plant, product development, and marketing. The client’s sales increased, in a declining market, by 50% within three years from the project’s completion.
  • Conducted a strategic analysis of the cost position for a manufacturing company with facilities in UK, France, Germany. Identified cost drivers and determined the cost position relative to a major competitor. Identified steps which would lead to the client becoming the lowest cost producer in Europe. The work was extended to include a review of the cost impact of proposed changes to the layout of the client’s plants and the introduction of leading-edge technology.
  • Reviewed the strategic position of a major UK food manufacturer within a European context. The client had integrated activities from agriculture to marketing, and the work focused on comparing the cost of this business system with other (e.g. non-integrated) systems.
  • Developed an international transfer-pricing scheme for the chemicals purchasing function of a major consumer products manufacturer. The work had a particular focus on the feasibility of the scheme within the context of European national tax regulations of the client’s countries of operation, and involved gaining input from tax specialists.