Financial and Economic Modelling for Oil and Gas, Energy and Resource SectorsThe oil and gas, energy and resource sectors are particularly appropriate for financial and economic modelling, especially where risk and uncertainty is concerned. Typical questions revolve around:

  • Cost estimation and budgetting (e.g. capex and opex uncertainty, incl. event risks)
  • Optimal decision-making, real options and valuing flexibility (e.g. appropriate forms of subsurface testing, value of information analysis and Bayesian techniques)
  • Exploration and discovery risk (incl. multiple prospects within a licence and dependencies)
  • Portfolio sizing and optimisation (e.g. optimal sizing of for E&A portfolios, aggregate reserves calculations)
  • Drilling uncertainty, drill program planning and optimisation of portfolios of drilling projects e.g. reflecting uncertainties in schedules, discoveries, and finance and resource constraints
  • Volumetric uncertainty estimation
  • Capturing dependencies e.g. between porosity and oil saturation in calculations
  • Mapping volume to non-linear cost curves (e.g. switching engineering designs according to volume)
  • Production forecasting and modelling (e.g. decline modelling, operational breakdown possibilities)
  • Price forecasting
  • Integrated business cases and valuation modelling: volumetrics, capex, opex, production, profits, taxes
  • Schedule risk analysis and integrated cost-schedule risk modelling
  • Incentive scheme optimisation e.g. design of fiscal regimes
  • Business cases, valuation, and uncertainty modelling of new technologies (oil recovery, unconventional gas, wind, bio-fuels etc)
  • Financing issues (e.g. debt modelling, project finance, supporting of equity raises, use of non-conventional financing techniques)
  • Tax calculations and optimisation

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